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Some lessons we learned – part 3, from Superforecasting of Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner:

  1. When making a guess, try to breakdown a complex problem in several smaller more tractable parts.
    • Even if you will have to make more hypotheses this way, it is more likely that the final result will be more accurate because it is easier to make reasonable assumptions on sub-problems.
    • Instead of focusing immediately on the details of a given situation, try to identify a more general benchmark to then adjust to that particular situation.
  2. Adjust your view on the basis of new information seeking balance between over and under reacting to it.
  3. Do not treat rules as dogmas, nothing is certain.
  4. Success can lead to acclaim that can undermine the habits of mind that produced the success” cit. Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
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