SOME LESSONS WE LEARNED - PART 3 - Emergent Quant
488
post-template-default,single,single-post,postid-488,single-format-standard,ajax_fade,page_not_loaded,,vertical_menu_enabled,qode-title-hidden,qode_grid_1300,side_area_uncovered_from_content,footer_responsive_adv,qode-child-theme-ver-1.0.0,qode-theme-ver-16.2,qode-theme-bridge,disabled_footer_top,disabled_footer_bottom,wpb-js-composer js-comp-ver-5.4.7,vc_responsive

SOME LESSONS WE LEARNED – PART 3

Some lessons we learned – part 3, from Superforecasting of Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner:

  1. When making a guess, try to breakdown a complex problem in several smaller more tractable parts.
    • Even if you will have to make more hypotheses this way, it is more likely that the final result will be more accurate because it is easier to make reasonable assumptions on sub-problems.
    • Instead of focusing immediately on the details of a given situation, try to identify a more general benchmark to then adjust to that particular situation.
  2. Adjust your view on the basis of new information seeking balance between over and under reacting to it.
  3. Do not treat rules as dogmas, nothing is certain.
  4. Success can lead to acclaim that can undermine the habits of mind that produced the success” cit. Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
4 Comments
  • Noelle
    Posted at 03:05h, 03 Settembre Rispondi

    Hi, very nice website, cheers!
    ——————————————————
    Need cheap and reliable hosting? Our shared plans start at $10 for an year and VPS plans for $6/Mo.
    ——————————————————
    Check here: https://www.good-webhosting.com/

  • jordan 11
    Posted at 00:27h, 13 Agosto Rispondi

    I’m writing to let you know of the brilliant encounter my friend’s princess developed studying your web page. She learned several things, which included what it is like to have an excellent giving heart to let other folks with no trouble gain knowledge of specific tricky topics. You really surpassed our own desires. I appreciate you for rendering these important, safe, explanatory and unique guidance on that topic to Jane.

  • birkin bag
    Posted at 07:51h, 13 Agosto Rispondi

    I as well as my pals appeared to be reviewing the great guides from your web blog and then all of a sudden got a horrible suspicion I had not thanked the blog owner for them. Most of the women happened to be as a result excited to learn all of them and now have honestly been using those things. I appreciate you for turning out to be indeed kind and for having varieties of really good tips most people are really needing to be aware of. My personal honest regret for not expressing appreciation to earlier.

  • yeezy boost
    Posted at 17:14h, 13 Agosto Rispondi

    I not to mention my buddies have already been analyzing the nice things located on your web blog then immediately I got a horrible feeling I had not expressed respect to the site owner for those secrets. My people were for that reason thrilled to read through them and now have without a doubt been loving these things. Thanks for genuinely quite considerate and also for considering this form of brilliant subjects most people are really needing to be aware of. Our own sincere apologies for not expressing appreciation to sooner.

Post A Comment

Top